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2009 Blue Jays Preview: Pitching
I waited till last to preview the pitching because there has been a lot for Cito Gaston and the coaches to choose from headed out of camp.
Today, the last two spots in the rotation were decided upon. The Jays will head north with a rotation that looks like this:
Roy Halladay
Jesse Litsch
David Purcey
Ricky Romero
Scott Richmond
Ill talk about each one in turn starting with Halladay. Halladay needs to be healthy and good, no he needs to be better than good, he needs to be his dominant self. Another 20 win season, no less, for this team to have any chance of competing for the postseason. As long as Doc is healthy, which was not a problem last year, there is no reason to think he can't continue being the most dominant starting pitcher in baseball, bar none. Since 2003, no pitcher has thrown more complete games and shutouts than Roy Halladay, he is simply the best starter in the AL, if not the majors.
Jesse Litsch has to be more consistent this year. Last year Jesse had some trouble into August and was sent down for a few starts, after coming back up he figured things out in September. Maybe thats all he needed. Despite that, he won 13 games last year. It would be nice to see him be a true number two guy and have that consistency needed to get over the 15-16 game hump. That would be a nice total for him. Hes not a big guy, hes a pitcher that is going to finesse a little and hit the corners. He has to have good location. 15 wins is not out of the question.
David Purcey, I picked in all three of my fantasy leagues. If you are in a salary cap style league, take a chance on him he will come cheap but I think the risk is a good one. I think he is going to surprise a lot of people this year. He has had a dominant spring with an ERA well under 2.00. Hes a big lefty that should complement Halladay and Litsch well. He showed glimpses of his stuff last year and hes going to get a shot to show it all this year. He could be a potential rookie of the year candidate if he qualifies. He could easily win 15 or more, he has the stuff and being a big 6'5" 230 pound lefy doesn't hurt, but again, consistency is the biggest concern with this kid.
Ricky Romero, former first round draft pick and hes finally going to get his shot in the fourth slot in the rotation. I can't wait to see this lefty throw. Hes only 24 years old so again, hes got to be consistent. Anything in the 10-12 win area would be nice.
Scott Richmond is the Canadian of the staff from Vancouver, BC and so he will definitely be the fan favorite in Toronto. Its always fun seeing a young Canadian with the Jays because the fans really do pull for them and give them they extra mile. Scott was picked to be on the Canadian Olympic team but bypassed it for an opportunity to pitch with the Jays last year. He showed some good stuff last year and again, it will be interesting to see how he pans out as the year goes on. 10-12 wins is possible with him too.
The relief staff looks like this:
Closer: BJ Ryan
Setup: Scott Downs
Jesse Carlson
Shawn Camp
Jason Frasor
Brian Tallet
Brandon League
BJ has had a rough spring and has lost some velocity, only hitting about 86-87 on the radar gun. Cito seems to think Scott Downs could fill in should BJ Ryan not be ready. Apparently Ryan is not hurt, has no nagging injuries since his Tommy John surgery, hes just lost some velocity.
I wonder why Brandon League wouldn't be considered with the upper 90's to 100 mph heat the kid brings but Ill trust Cito on this one. Jeremy Accardo could be in the mix if Ryan struggles as well, he was sent down to triple A Las Vegas.
As Cito said though, this is the same relief staff that led the majors with a 2.94 ERA last year so why not give them a chance to duplicate that.
Other notables for the staff:
Casey Jannsen will not be available until May due to some shoulder issues which is why Ricky Romero gets a chance in the rotation. So if there are holes to be filled, Jannsen could provide some help come May.
Dustin McGowan will be ready by June or July. If they are in the race at all by then, McGowan will be a big help stepping into the rotation.
Matt Clement will not make the opening day roster but he is going to Las Vegas, if one of the kids at the back end struggles, Clement may get a shot.
Category: Toronto Blue Jays 2009 Preview
2009 Toronto Blue Jays Preview
This week I take a look at the outfield and for probably the third year in a row this group looks like the most talented outfield in the American League East. Rios is one of the top three right fielders in the American League period, when healthy not many will argue Vernon Wells is among the best center fielders, and left fielder Adam Lind is poised for a breakout year.
The key to what I just said above is health. Vernon Wells has already had trouble with the same hamstring that had him miss time last year and though he may be ready for opening day his hamstrings are always a concern especially for him in a spacious center field on turf at Rogers Center. The Blue Jays offensively will sink and swim with the health of Wells. He stays healthy and this lineup with be right up there with the big boys int he AL. He goes down for any period of time or has to play hurt and they will struggle. A return to say 2004 form would be nice for this year, 25-30 HR, 100+ RBI and .300.
Alex Rios had a disappointing start to last season but toward the second half his power numbers started to heat up. A full year with Cito Gaston and his coaches should wake up the power potential Rios has in that bat of his. Defensively he is in the top three amongst right fielders and on the base paths Rios is a legit 40 stolen base threat. We are still waiting for that 30+ HR, 100+ RBI, 100+ Run, .300+ season out of Rios, this would be a nice year to get it.
Adam Lind showed glimpses of whats to come last year and should have a break out campaign, he will get most of the time in left field with DH Travis Snider giving him and the other outfielders a rest throughout the year. Lind is the X factor, if he has that breakout year they could have three outfielders with 20+ home runs. Defensively, hes adequate to above average.
If Wells stays healthy this group carries the team offensively and they may surprise some teams this year. Next week I will tackle the pitching as I finish up my 2009 Blue Jays previews.
Category: Toronto Blue Jays 2009 Preview
Third Base
This is a no brainer if the Jays want to stay in the race this year. Scott Rolen or who ever plays at third base on a regular basis this year needs to be better offensively.
When Troy Glaus was traded for Scott Rolen before last year I thought for the clubhouse and defensively it was the best move they could have made. Glaus was a liability at the corner. Offensively he had become stale as well.
Well, as it turns out Scott Rolen was as good defensively as advertised but the offense was lacking because of his injured shoulder that plagued him much of the year.
This year he has apparently changed his swing and so far in spring games he has done some damage at the plate and appears to be back to being productive. Last year he had 11 home runs and had a less than stellar year driving in runs.
Assuming the defense does not fall off, Rolen has to come up with 20-25 home runs with a return to his 90-100 RBI, 80-90 run season and hit around a .275-.280 clip for this team to be considered solid at the corner.
Rolen will have Jose Bautista backing him up and if need be Marco Scutaro can come over and play if they need to go three deep. Bautista has power as well and should be interesting to see him if he gets a chance should Rolen go down.
Category: Toronto Blue Jays 2009 Preview
2009 Blue Jays Preview
Marco Scutaro will man shortstop this season for the Blue Jays. Last year Scutaro was picked up to play a role off the bench and play part-time after success in that role with the Oakland A's. He was a great depth player.
With injuries to Aaron Hill, Lyle Overbay and Scott Rolen we found out that Scutaro could play full time. Not something expected, but it was a pleasant surprise to see that he could contribute both defensively and offensively after having to fill an unexpected role after the Hill concussion.
Scutaro will have help from John McDonald and Joe Inglett throughout the season, both of whom impressed last year defensively and at time offensively. Who knew Joe Inglett would come in and hit close to .300.
So this year, Scutaro knows what to expect, knows that he will be the main guy at short. Though not the best of the bunch defensively, he is probably in there because he is the best bat between himself, McDonald and Inglett.
Look for Scutaro to hit 8-12 HR, .260-.280 batting average, 150-180 hits, 70-80 runs, 60-70 RBI's. If the Jays get that and some solid defense and reliable spot duty from Johnny Mac and Inglett, I think they would consider that a successful year for Scutaro.
In a division filled with the offensive variety of shortstop looking at Scutaro it is easy to question him and the Jays at this position, even if they had to go with Johnny Mac, Cito Gaston has pointed out a few times that the Jays in 92-93 didn't have a power hitting shortstop, they had Manuel Lee the first year with Alfredo Griffin as his backup and Tony Fernandez the second with Alfredo Griffin and Dick Schofield backing him up. Granted that Fernandez was one of the better hitting shortstops for his time, powerwise he was never much better than Scutaro will give in a typical year.
Overall, this should be a strong position for the Jays and Cito is used to not having that heavy hitting shortstop, just be excellent defensively or the lack of offense will be an issue from this position.
Category: Toronto Blue Jays 2009 Preview
Second Base
I figured I would go old school Jays for this post. Second base last year was a lost cause for the most part. The Jays missed the bat of Aaron Hill in the line up for the bulk of the year after he suffered a concussion early on and never came back.
The Jays got solid production from guys like Joe Inglett, Marco Scutaro and John Mcdonald but never got Aaron Hill like numbers from any of them. They filled in nicely defensively but they missed the power and production that Hill could give in the say the 2 hole in the lineup.
So, the Jays go into this year with a healthy Aaron Hill. With his bat in the lineup they have a solid number 2 guy in the batting order. A guy who could hit 20-25 HR, 80-100 RBI's and score 100 runs. Hill is also a threat to run too and could put up 20-25 stolen bases.
Defensively he's at par with what the Jays got with the role guys who filled in last year. He will provide solid defense and in a great year maybe a gold glove or two. That is the one thing the Jays are knee deep in as far as middle infielders. Guys who can scrap and play defense. They will never lack this year defensively no matter what happens to their starters healthwise.
This batting order will benefit from having Hill back and mark my words, Wells and Rios will be different hitters with Hill hitting 2nd which is exactly where he should hit in a healthy lineup.
Category: Toronto Blue Jays 2009 Preview
Sniff, Sniff..... I Smell Spring
I have to admit I like the new uniform. Toronto across the top of the bird is pretty sharp. As much as this offseason brought little in the way of free agency, this guy, Roy Halladay is the best pitcher in baseball and as long as the Jays have him there is always hope in the spring.
If everything goes right around him there is always a chance. 3 more days till spring training game one. "The Doc Watch", Toronto's answer to the "Joba Watch" in which Yankees fans get their panties in a knot over a mediocre pitcher while Jays fans watch the best pitcher in baseball complete games and shut teams out, continues in a few short weeks.
Category: Signs of Spring | The Doc Watch | Toronto Blue Jays 2009 Preview
Firstbase
The Jays come back with Lyle Overbay this year at first and at 32 he still has a chance to prove something to a team that was counting on so much more. The last two years for Overbay have been injury riddled seasons with little to resemble his first season with the club.
The Jays have to get 20-25 home runs, 100 RBI's, and 170-200 hits out of Overbay. He has that kind of swing that could do it too. They desparately need him to return to a guy that will give them 45-55 doubles as well.
Backing up Overbay and a guy that could potentially turn first base into a very solid platoon should Overbay start slowly is Kevin Millar. Millar is a consistent 20 HR, 80 RBI guy and could provide a nice righty/lefty platoon at first base.
Overbay and Millar could both DH and Millar also could spell Lind/Snider in left field. This is one position though that the Jays need to have running on all cylinders should they hope to compete at all in the AL East this year. With as bad as the offense was last year, if it had been average, they would have made the wild card. That is what they need this year, the offense at first base to return to average.
Category: Toronto Blue Jays 2009 Preview
The Catchers
The Jays in the offseason had one goal at the catching position, that was to find a worthy backup. The have themselves a couple of options on the roster and in the minors and were pretty successful in finding a guy to compete with Rod Barajas.
The Jays signed Michael Barrett who is still just 32 years old and has had a few injury plagued and down seasons but still capable of leading a team behind the plate. His best seasons so far were three straight years with the Chicago Cubs from 2004-2006 when he hit 16 home runs in each of those seasons.
Behind Rod Barajas and Barrett the Jays have the young JP Arencibia, however it would take a tragic circumstance to see him up in the big leagues for any significant period of time this season. Between Barrett and Barajas you have two guys who have 20 HR potential should one stand out and take most of the playing time while the other provides more than adequate services as a backup.
Barrett could become yet another player and probably the last player to play for both the Jays and the Expos if he breaks camp and has a successful spring. Ill have to see if I can find the full list of players who have done just that. I know Barrett is at least the second catcher to have played for both, the first being Darrin Fletcher.
Next week I will tackle the corner infield slots as we preview the Jays in 2009.
Category: Toronto Blue Jays 2009 Preview
Jays Front Office 2009 Preview
Jays fans have had a realitively easy target to aim their complaints at the last few years. JP Riccardi hasn't exactly paved a smooth road, from run ins with opposing players (Adam Dunn) to shady decision making and at times telling lies to the fans regarding various player related issues.
That said, I don't think the Jays front office has done a horrific job considering the resources they have had. They have done exactly what any team in a division like the AL East needs to do. They have made some tough choices with hopes that they would pan out, including over paying on some players and not locking up others.
Im giving JP a clean slate this season. I want to see how things go with a couple of things:
1. How does Scott Rolen perform given his shoulder has had an entire offseason to heal. Who knew that Troy Glaus was going to round back into 30 HR form in St. Louis and Scott Rolen would be just a shadow of his former self.
2. How does Travis Snider fare splitting time with Adam Lind in left field and DH.
3. How do the kids do in the rotation and also, how do a couple of these reclaimation projects work out in Matt Clement and Mike Maroth. Most of the these pitchers coming up now are JP draft picks who will show how his drafts have been. If they do well, then JP will get passing grades at year end. David Purcey is the biggest question mark. Can he build on a good 2008.
4. He made a great choice for Manager in CIto Gaston last year and I think a full season with Cito and his staff could pay off huge. The players love Cito and I would like to think that Cito has a lot of say in who they go with in terms of player personel.
5. Paul Beeston is still the CEO in the mean time and something tells me, he wants to see this team turned around before he steps down. He was one of the ones who built this team from the ground up and made it what it was in the early 90's, this front office can only benefit by having him there.
6. I want to see how an expanded scouting department improves their acquisition of players from overseas. They hired scouts who will be focused on Asian players, specifically Japanese players, something they have not explored enough.
Lets give him a chance, he still has two years left, they are not going to buy him out and I think he has made some under the radar type of moves that may pay off if not this year, going ahead into 2010. Lets not forget, JP is still young for a GM, he has some good vision for the team, he has just had the misfortune of trying to compete monetarily against the two richest teams in baseball. I think this past offseason they have changed course a little, they are paring back expenses and trying to do it the Oakland way, where they may have side stepped that in recent years with Frank Thomas, AJ Burnett and BJ Ryan like signings.
Category: Toronto Blue Jays 2009 Preview
